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Topic Title: Athlon 64 Roadmap
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Created On: 10/11/2003 04:34 PM
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 10/11/2003 04:34 PM
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Ivan Andreevich
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The motherboards are quite cheap for Socket 754 as of now - at a point where I am ready to pay the price. However, the lowest Athlon 64 CPU is 3200+ - at a price which I am not willing to pay.

When will something like Athlon 64 2800+ @ 1.8 Ghz come out? I guess I would buy it quite soon then, provided it will overclock well.

With 350000 AMD64 CPU's Guess I'll have to wait until next year's Paris.. or will I?

It would be great if some AMD employee would give some concrete information.
 10/11/2003 05:08 PM
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Speed_Mechanic
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According to this Roadmap' ">http://www.pbase.com/image/17079307/original, the AMD Athlon 64 3000+ is said to appear sometime later this month, or early November. Don't know if there will be an Athlon 64 2800+ @ 1.8GHz.
 10/11/2003 05:58 PM
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ALIEN3001
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A64 3200+ is at 2GHz, so a 3000+ model would be at 3000+.

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 10/11/2003 06:42 PM
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Ardrid
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If I remember correctly, there won't be any lower versions of the Athlon 64. All models below 2GHz were canned due to good yields supposedly. This could change obviously, but I think AMD will just introduce faster models and drop the prices on the slower models, rather than introducing slower models individually. I find that roadmap very interesting though, and I pray to God it's accurate because I would LOVE to see an FX-55 before the end of the year.

I'm also anxious to see how Socket 939 is going to be implemented. I would figure that AMD would use the Athens core (.09 Opteron) for the FX rather than the San Diego core (.09 Athlon 64) as the pin counts are identical. All they'd have to do is remove one pin from the Athens core and they'd have Socket 939. Moreover, the HT links and memory controller are dependent on the pin-count. If they were to work up from the San Diego core, they'd need a Socket 8xx to get a dual-channel version of the Athlon 64. I guess we'll see what happens.

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 10/11/2003 06:48 PM
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Speed_Mechanic
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I heard that significantly low-clocked Athlon 64's were canned, but that a 1.8GHz 3000+ version was still in the works.. Not entirely sure though.
 10/11/2003 09:30 PM
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Ivan Andreevich
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Any ideas on how much the next lower clocked version will cost anyone?
 10/12/2003 12:14 AM
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Ardrid
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Well, assuming they do release a lower clocked version, I'd say it would be priced around $250-350.

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 10/12/2003 03:14 PM
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Ivan Andreevich
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How about something for under $150?
 10/12/2003 03:15 PM
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Dagalidis
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QUOTE How about something for under $150?

Its too early for this price.......

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 10/13/2003 06:28 PM
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Ivan Andreevich
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Well yeah I understand that. I am asking WHEN

Paris Q1 2004?
 10/13/2003 06:35 PM
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Ardrid
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Hmm...Athlon 64s below $150? I'd say Q2'04. Although Paris might get pretty close to that price point.

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 10/13/2003 10:39 PM
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JoeP
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The costs won't get really low for these chips fora few basic reasons:

They're 64-bit
They use more pins (more gold)
Larger dies then the last few Athlons.
 10/13/2003 10:44 PM
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Dave Graham
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QUOTE (Ardrid @ Oct 13 2003, 02:35 PM) Hmm...Athlon 64s below $150? I'd say Q2'04. Although Paris might get pretty close to that price point.
i'd push it back to mid/late Q3....reason being, you still have to prove profitabilty from this years yields to make drastic changes to ASPs...

We'll see what AMD can report for profit in Q1 and tailor our predictions from there...

cheers,

dave

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 10/15/2003 01:05 AM
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Ivan Andreevich
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Uh by 2004, S754 should be way into value segment. So why would be so expensive still?
 10/15/2003 03:20 AM
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BEENTHERE
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The A64 3000+ should ship this month and it will be the slowest in this line. For XP fans the 3400+ should also ship this month. I'd only expect small price drops on the A64/FX line until mid '04 and as Dave mentioned maybe into Q3 '04 before we see $150 A64 models. AMD needs to recover a couple hundred million in R & D costs, so they can't drop the ASP too quickly!!!

As a reference point Xbit Labs has a survey going on the sweet spot price point and as it turns out $250 seems to be the magic number, which based on my experience and budget is pretty accurate. I'd say many folks will jump on A64/FX with a $250 CPU price point. If you think about it, that's a Helleva lot of performance for the price and then if you move to Linux you save a bunch on the O/S too and you get both 32-bit and 64-bit, so wow what a way to go! AMD may be the best thing to happen to Linux and vice versa when the dust settles. Wouldn't it be wonderful to have a fast, stable, secure O/S that you didn't have to completely replace every two years just to fill Dollar Bill's bank account???

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 10/15/2003 10:32 PM
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Ivan Andreevich
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$250 for 1.8 Ghz Athlon 64? I won't upgrade to that unless it oveclocks to 2.4-2.6 ghz.. I mean I've got a $50 Tbred that runs at 2.4 Ghz. That's price/performance.. not $250
 10/15/2003 11:49 PM
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BEENTHERE
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I wouldn't expect any of the A64/FX series to have a huge overclocking range as these are completely different X86 CPUs from anything else ever produced. You should be using benchmarks that simulate what you do with your PC to compare actual system performance, which is all that really counts anyway. In general an A64 will run 10-20% faster than an equal speed XP depending on the app. The FX will run even faster as I'm sure you know. So for instance if you compared an XP 3200+ with and A64 3200+ you'd see a significant performance gain in many apps with the A64 3200+ even though the two CPUs have the same speed rating.

As for price/value, you didn't buy that Tbred for $50 shortly after they were released. You bought it I'd bet close to two years after they were first released. The Tbred was also just an enhanced Athlon, not a completely new CPU design. I'd say it's unlikely the A64/FX will ever see the $50 price point before they are replaced with higher clockspeed chippies. I'd imagine $100 would likely be the bottom line for any of the A64/FX series chippies based on R&D and production costs. At least that's what my crystal balls indicates today !



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 10/16/2003 03:31 AM
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halcyon
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QUOTE (Ivan Andreevich @ Oct 14 2003, 09:05 PM) Uh by 2004, S754 should be way into value segment. So why would be so expensive still?
Can I ask politely, what makes you think S754 Athlon64 will be value segment by 2004?

AMD is positioning Athlon64 againts Pentium 4 and Athlon XP will go to be the value segment for Socket754.

I don't see any reason for Socket 754 Athlon64 to become value segment price during H1/2004 the very least. Maybe not in H2 either, when one consider how badly Intel appears to be doing with their upcoming product launches.

Don't get me wrong though, I'd very much like Athlon64 lower speeds to become value priced very soon, but I don't see it as a very likely possibility anytime soon (within a year or so).

 10/16/2003 11:21 AM
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monte84
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this my sound a little strange, but anyway.

OK, the 754Pin A64 uses HT(hence there is no northbridge to control memory). So if the AthlonXP is going to be the budget 754, then will it get an implimentation of HT? Or an entirely new motherboard (which seems illogical)? or will the be a memory controller built in on future mobo's?

thanks,

monte84

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 10/16/2003 11:53 AM
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Greyhound
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QUOTE (monte84 @ Oct 16 2003, 07:21 AM) this my sound a little strange, but anyway.

OK, the 754Pin A64 uses HT(hence there is no northbridge to control memory). So if the AthlonXP is going to be the budget 754, then will it get an implimentation of HT? Or an entirely new motherboard (which seems illogical)? or will the be a memory controller built in on future mobo's?

thanks,

monte84
IMHO, the Socket 754 Athlon XPs will prolly be A64's with their 64-bit capability(=AMD64 support) disabled. It's more or less the only way to provide a 32-bit only CPU(=Athlon XP) for Socket 754 since those mobos don't have a NB/Memory-controller...

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